“Brandon McCarthy, Atlanta’s Tuesday starter, has a subpar 5.05 ERA, but he’s 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in two starts against the Phillies. The total opposite of that comes courtesy of Phillies starter Vince Velasquez, who has a 2.07 ERA in his last three starts ... but is 0-3 and has allowed 16 runs in 12.2 innings in his three starts against the Braves this year. Philly is tough at home, but Atlanta and its NL-top-scoring offense is the best road team in the league.
The Braves have had the Phillies' number, and my trust computer believes they're still not getting the respect from Vegas that they deserve. Atlanta is handily winning the majority of my simulations of this game, and as a posted underdog. Take the Braves.”