dedicationforex dedicationforex

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  Charts only. (Specialise in Oil) 🔹 Now London Retail Trader 🔹 Been in the Industry 9 Years 🔹 Ex Goldman Sachs trader®

DJIA Shorts were the only play of the day today. Look at the Pre Market Volume at 9AM GMT. The charts "candles" looking Bullish Volume just isn't giving me that pivot to confirm it's a true rally. They set this up to fail in the London massively. Doesn't help that BA & AAPL two of the largest stocks in the Dow by weighting were priced in on that shaky Volume in the Pre Market fake Bid. BA & AAPL control around 15% of the Dows weighting in two Stocks. That's massive! And this is why your charts show you nothing.

Traders may fade refining strength. With an abnormal pop in Refining Equities in March/April, it's time be building models & case study's. Oil markets are back in the headlines prompting rotations back in energy. Refiners are benefiting from a funds flow perspective, along with optimism on future IMO changes into 2020. Oil spiking on geopolitical concerns and OPEC curtailments, doesn't really bode well for downstream margins. My guess would be aggressive Q2 estimates +306% Q/Q, increasing Global throughput and a seasonally weaker period for NYMEX 3-2-1. 2Q18 EPS numbers are way to high personally, at some point these numbers will get challenged as numbers for the year progressively move lower. Eyes on US Production numbers, US utilisation trending above industry expectations but global outages were towards the upper end of historical ranges through March. Just as I said in January too, turnaround activity is rolling off and we are also digesting the impact of ongoing capacity additions globally. These views are my own, I have been Long Crude since $44 last summer, it's now up 2400 pips so make of that what you will.

DJIA close today was interesting. Heavily defended on a low tick down Volume. Dow drops 120 ticks today, breaking its three day winning streak. Good rally of the lows in the final hour however, as you can see from my Bloomberg tight CTA levels. But ultimately squarely lower today. That's what you call a slow flush washout today, really choppy with a gradual decline in Volume. Keep it Hedged Retail.

So many Retail traders talk about their "edge" in the market. But there is no edge in the Non Commercial side. If there was an edge, institutions would be out of a job. Here's an example of yesterday and today on Citibank shares. Yesterday on the close, someone bought 125K shares of Citi, that's about $8.7 millions worth. Pretty big for a one person trade on the books. Defiantly stood out. Now look at today's open the Volume on the open, someone again bought 50K shares this time. That's about $3.4 millions worth. Look at the "Broker" their Buying through Cantor Fitzgerald. They specialise in institutional equity serving the middle market in investment banking. Soon as I saw 125K bought yesterday I got in, another Pump on today's open with 50K bought and someone clearly has an "edge" LOL. Welcome to actual finance. And no ticking off the engulfing candle on your checklist isn't an edge. Citibank up 2% in the last 24 hours. Many thanks Commercial middle men. #BloombergTerminal

Lots to be planning and watching in today's Pre Market. Seeing good Q-spread returns. Along with T12M sales, F12M EPS and F24M sales. Low financial leverage has risen into the top-10 factors showing a shift in investors focus toward quality growth vs momentum, which is significantly underperforming year to date. Long term, free cash flow to enterprise value has the ninth highest Q-spread return on a seven year horizon at 58% and has one of the highest composite factor scores. Not long until the "Sell in May" on Equities, be careful Retail.

Someone's taping the books for Citibank today, 125K single shares in a day at market price. Well done Bross man! Open Interest building, 125K at $70 a share give or take well over $8 million in market value from one transaction. 1Q18 shows continued franchise momentum and improving profitability metrics. Robust sheets with a fully phased-in CET1 ratio of 12.1% based on the standardised approach. Supplementary leverage ratios stand at 6.7%. Keep eyes on ROACE levels just shy of 10%, if we hit 10% watch Retail Non Commercial cash Buy in, that's perfect for stop hunting. ROAA just under 1% too is great. Still it's less about EPS these days, eyes on QE and tapering back from the FED. If your a trader of US Equities these should be more important for you. Both Long and Short term issuer rating is positive too. Good positions today I'm hoping, tapering regardless in for 15 lots keeping it small for now at £100 a pip.

Never feel alone with 3 screens and a Bloomberg. #BloombergTerminal

US Gasoline prices from the American Automobile Association. Right next to US Retail Sales. Monthly sales YoY% are down -11.76%. Avg Gas prices started around $2.50 in January 2018, were now around $2.75. That's around a 10% jump in Gas prices this year alone. Why do you think Retail Sales are DOWN around -10% also..... less money to spend due to higher fuel prices, can only mean one thing. Less money spent in retail outlets. I said this in Jan, i'v been Long Crude Oil all year, and Short the Dollar. It's been the perfect combo so far hasn't let me down once. Now go and READ THIS AGAIN.

DJIA step up moves, every dip has been Shorted on the Lows. Rising Net Flows dumb money ETF's are the only ones dipping. Why do you think all Financials have had great EARNINGS the last week. Loans are up, Revenues are up, Equities are also up. When are people more likely to BORROW CASH. When rates are LOW. No wonder the FED are in a rush to Hike. No wonder EPS are well above the consensus. The amount of fools who bought JPM, WFC, C last week and GS on "good earnings" gets me every quarter. Everything is massively priced in, EPS means nothing in this environment when Equities and low interest rates do the talking. They couldn't even keep dumb money ETF's up in the greatest first month of the year for US Index's. What do you think that means when we see another 5% drop Retail.....

Dow Jones 25,100 upside fill still remains strong. That's about a 2% rally from current Pre Market prices. Mondays gap up also playing a part.

JPM, Citi and Wells Fargo all had earnings out today. JPM had trading revenues up 7% vs 5% expected. Mostly driven by Equity gains. Return on tangible Equity of 19% also topped 18% medium term target. All major banks WERE in the green in the Pre Market during releases. Citi came in at $3.3B, Est $3.07B whilst reporting $1.68 a share! Revenues up 3% from the prior, mainly from ICG and GCB. Overall a good balance more than $3B returned to shareholders. That's defiantly helping EPS. Then came Wells Fargo reporting higher profits and a smaller drop in revenue than Wall Street expected. Profit also beat WS expectations. That's JPM, Citi and WFC all kicking of earnings season above consensus. AND look at where financials are now, down -1.00% on my Market Map. Just shows you the power of pricing in. All three banks shares down today in NY. Followed by Industrials down -0.50% mainly from Boeing being down hard with its 10% weighting. Call yourself traders Retail it's laughable, you needed to have been watching the Market Map all day for EPS on all three financials. Along with Industrials, if you can't see that and can't be up to read the Pre Market earnings your no trader using the charts. A good 10 handles on the SPX also interesting to see no Volume dips build into the day. CTA on the Dow still down massively according to band valuations most are underwater. Pulled 40 ticks Buying near lows after they bottomed around 11pm NY. Finally was setup for a small Buy, but heavy pricing like this you should know it's not as simple as all the muppets following trend lines. #RetailNoobs

Crude Oil prices have gained 5.6% in Q1-18 and have accelerated 2.3% so far in April after touching their highest levels in 3 years. OPEC continues to outperform its 32.73mb daily Output target, achieving 159% compliance rate in March 2018. Keep in mind however we also observed a hike in OPEC's forecast for Non-OPEC Supply due to increased Production in Canada and ramp up of Shale Production in the US. This could mean lower OPEC Output could be offset by increased Production from Non-OPEC producers. Now the global Oil stock surplus is close to evaporating, note as we go into US driving season id be wary of EIA Builds this late into the game. It happened last summer, and they pumped Oil from $40 to where we are now. I'm still long from $44 one year on.

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