dedicationforex dedicationforex

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  Finance only. (Specialise in Macro/Funds & DayTrading) 🔹 Now London Desk Trader 🔹 Been in the Industry 9 Years 🔹 Ex Goldman Sachs trader®

1)SPX coming into fresh lows, first sign of any relief rally in some time. After three consecutive trading sessions lower. Spikes hitting the Bid here, looking like a switch could be building. All those who have been Short the past fortnight wanting to move back to cover their Shorts.
2) And there's the switch kids, overnight close into today's Pre Market. SPX DJIA bouncing, good to be Long into yesterday's close. Running +200 ticks now on Dow. Covering of 2 weeks worth of Sells = dead cat bounce.

Sberbank of Russia got absolutely ruined on Friday. DOWN -3.2% into the close. Just to show you how rigged the game is Retail. Massive DUMPING off the security on Friday. Someone sold 10.95 1/2 worth $2.19K right into the daily low. Massive SELL position. The security is down -3.2% Russian largest bank after the CBR. This is how rigged the game is Retail, so don't tell me you're trend line said Sell LOL! Seeing director dealings is key. Now the big boys are running from Longs of the banks. Think about what this means for the Russian Ruble (currency) + short-term Russian GDP. Russian Oil Exports are already going to be down with the latest OPEC Cut. Ruble weakness coming, before surprise upside EM policies in 2019. Then I'm a Buyer of the currency.

Real #TradingDesk no caption needed. A billion times different from the Retail laptop chart lifestyle.

What's on my screen going into the close - CL SPREADS (HO) F19 / covering H19. Aligning 10Y US Treasury Notes. Ords 25P running SIC codes for BARC tracking divergence between UK / US Financials into EOY. Big change in monetary policies this week with ECB. Eyes on that with Bond Purchasing coming to an end. Balance sheets will need to be adjusted in Q1, that's where I'll come in and Buy default rates on the low.

Interesting open on UK Financials, US Financials got hammered yesterday again. The lag between the two is building. US only tanked as the FED got extremely Hawkish, 30Y fixed creeped over 5%. Auto loans as a result are down YoY down, the same goes for REITs, mainly due to 5%. UK will be very much the same story. Can't wait to pick up defaults super cheap as well! THINK RETAIL.

Even the UK Financials are not much better off than US Banking Stocks that are down -20% YTD. BARC with 52-wk high @ 220 now sitting @ 160. This is lagging behind US Financials and will catch up, once BOE start a Hawkish cycle on rates. Brexit won't help either. Looks like their trying hard to keep BARC afloat on my Order-Book. Once Hawkish tones kick in, in 2019 watch this relief rally price in hard for a Dump. This is going to be very similar to my Citi Short. Most UK families would struggle on mortgage payments with just a few Hikes! Expect to see Net Exposure down as well, once the spread catches up in 2019. Lag between Hikes & Financials rallying always takes a few months. Just like the Citi 2-Way Book in Q1 before it Dumped -15%. LOL Retail keep up. Already rolling YTD performance is down and well away from the 52-wk high. Look at discrete performance YTD -21.71%. Ouch! Meaning default rates will also rise, once BOE Hike multiple times over the next 5 years, anything over 1% default is bad. Retail been doing this 10 years now on desks. Been around the block a little.

Putting Crude Oil through its paces the last 24 hours. An example of hunting out a setup. $WTI sitting at $51 Pre Market. Crude inventory down FINALLY. After 10 consecutive weeks of Builds. Coming in -1.2M vs -3.0M. Could very easily be heading towards 47/48 into 2019, almost back to the summer 2017 rally starting point as US Driving Season started. Pain squeeze yesterday down another -$1. Might present Buying scalps now before EOW. Rigs on Friday however, lots to be watching on that front. EIA cutting Oil price forecasts for 19, with new US Production outlook. Whilst Hiking domestic Production outlook for next year. Trade the DIVERGENCE not the noise Retail. Markets react first and THINK later.

A REAL TRADING DESK. Late nights in the office, working until about 10/11PM before heading home each night. Running any firm takes a tremendous amount of will power. Being a "trader" is far from sitting at home with the laptop. For those of us who do this for a living and have considerably large amounts of AUM on the line daily, one really can't skimp out on feeds, brokers, equity, equipment, the works !

Dow Jones Pre Market setting up. Last week saw a -2000 point decline from 26K - 24K. Quite the pain squeeze trade. Many Long currently getting squeezed for a fourth time yesterday like myself. AVG Long for most Non-Commercial sitting around 25K if we take an AVG from the -2K Dump. Meaning most in a DD around -400 points underwater. Waiting for the market to move back to 25K so Retail get back to BE on their AVG Buys. Once that happens watch them hit the Bid more and add to a loser. Then is a good time to be a contrarian!

Goldman Sachs 2019 - China Outlook + a few other pieces from Goldman Sachs archives portal. Key information highlighted from my Pre Market reading. This is what REAL TRADING looks like Retail. Not a single chart in sight.

I smell FEAR.

UST 10YR 2.879 & spread b/n 2YR/10 is 10.3bps.

Q: Is this over blown?
A: Depends on what your take is on what China will do. This will also depend on how much UST China can sell in 1 day. Still Short Retail.

Russia is primed for a strong 2019 with a policy-based recovery plan to counter further sanctions, reduce Ruble volatility, and increase the market growth for favored sectors.

Fundamental analysis of RSX's holdings shows not only secured dividend opportunities, but ambitious corporate plans aided by strong balance sheets poised for 2019 growth that should push up RSX's price in 1Q2019.

Key RSX catalysts to watch for in 2019: Potential Kerch Strait sanctions (4Q18-1Q2019), FYE earnings releases (1Q2019), mean reversion of 52W price boundaries (1Q2019), FDI inflows (1Q2019). Aligned political and investor interests create a unique growth opportunity for government-owned and favored "systemically important" companies like Sberbank (7.98% of RSX). "Likely" Kerch Strait sanctions (4Q18-1Q2019) present systemic based price risk for RSX's holdings and should be monitored closely.

Russia's recent recovery has been based on the allocation of gains from higher oil prices, an effective budget surplus, a positive trade surplus aided on a weaker ruble, increased stabilization of geopolitical risk, monetary loosening and increasing optimism on key growth statistics.

We can expect modest, but positive growth for 2019 with GDP forecasts up from 2018's 1.7% to 1.8%. GDP forecasts and macroeconomic stability are largely based on average oil price restabilizing at around the key $65/bbl mark, a maintained budget surplus, controlled inflation around 4%, and a positive trade balance. Stability is further strengthened with new policies on budget constraints at % of revenue.

Oil prices are expected to average $65/bbl in 2019 and increase to $66/bbl in 2020. The current expectations for budget surplus are up from 2018's +0.1% of GDP to +0.3% in 2019. This is significantly better than previous estimates of deficits of 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively. As for inflation, by 2020, Russia's inflation rate is expected to reach its 4% mark, up from its present 2.8% 2018 average.

We are seeing non-tradeable sectors bolstering the economy and further corporate growth increases through positive 1H2018 results, up from a slow 3Q2017.

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